This year, to keep the criteria the same, I included riders with better than 100-to-1 odds to win. Then, I averaged the 10 individual odds for each rider (9, in the case of Esteban Chaves, who did not have odds on one betting site) to get overall fractional odds. Here’s what I came up with:
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Of course, if you’re not big on statistics, you can always take the advice of a mini-horse racing fan:
Big Thoughts for the Win
As with last year, Froome is the top favorite, even if he says he’s not, with 6/5 average odds and a 44.4 percent implied probability* (meaning if you ran the Tour in a simulation 100 times, Chris Froome comes up in yellow in 44 of those runs). But while last year there was a bigger drop to Nairo Quintana as the second-most favored rider, this year it’s closer: Porte is at 8/5 average odds and a 38.5 implied probability. Quintana is well down at 7/1 odds and just 12.5 percent probability, likely because he raced the Giro d’Italia in an attempt to hit the Giro-Tour double.
I think oddsmakers are trying to split the difference between Froome’s historic success at the Tour and the fact that he comes to the race without a signature strong result. In fact, he doesn’t have a win of any kind yet this season—the first time since 2012 that he’s entered the Tour without a victory. That said, I have a hard time seeing Porte beat Froome, even on this course. Froome has a deeper team, for one thing.
Fantasy Take: I’d pick Froome over Porte. It’s a heavy cost, for sure, (but only four points more expensive) for a rider with far better historical results in Grand Tours (Porte’s fifth overall last year was by far his best GT ever, although it could’ve been second overall without that Stage 2 flat). So: Froome if you can afford him; Porte if those extra four points for Froome is a budget-buster.
I’d go with…